Historical volatility

IndicatorsFrom Pro

• Value

Historical volatility

20 candles · above 80 %

• HV
• calm
• volatile

This is how the node looks on the board: inputs on the left, outputs on the right.

How much the price swings, per year. Measures how much the price has swung over the last candles and scales that to a year, the way options traders quote it. 50 % means the swings of the last candles amount to roughly ±50 % over a year. Because Bellchain scales by the timeframe, values from hourly and daily candles are of the same order. Below “calm” the market is quiet, often before a bigger move; above “volatile” it swings hard, for example in a sell-off. Example: HV 20 on daily candles above 80 % reports a phase in which BTC swings unusually hard.

What it looks like

• Price (close of each candle)
• HV 20
• below 15 % and above 40 %

Top: the BTC/USDT price; bottom: the historical volatility 20 of the same 1-hour candles, scaled to a year. Here with “Calm below 15 %” and “Volatile above 40 %”: the outputs are true while the line is inside the zone. Big candles make the line jump; 20 candles later they drop out again.

Setting it in the chart

The properties show the price of the last 150 candles at the top and Historical volatility below it, with the zone between the thresholds. Drag a threshold or type it; the number in the field follows in whole steps. Dots on the price show where “calm” or “volatile” would be true, the top line shows how often.

More under Chart below the price.

Settings

The settings appear on the right under “Properties” once you click the node on the board. Below each field you find the same explanation as here.

Candles

Default: 20 · from 2 to 500, whole number

How many candles the swings are measured over. 20 is usual, on daily candles about three weeks. Fewer candles react faster to single big candles, more candles show the calmer underlying swing.

Calm below

Default: 30 % · from 0 to 500 %

Below this line the market counts as calm, and the “calm” output is true. For BTC on daily candles 30 % is rather quiet; altcoins usually swing more.

Volatile above

Default: 80 % · from 0 to 500 %

Above this line the market counts as volatile, and the “volatile” output is true. For BTC on daily candles 80 % is already a lot.

Example

Notifies you when the swings of the last 20 hours, scaled to a year, rise above 80 %: an unusually restless phase.

How to connect the nodes:

1. Candle (Price) → Historical volatility (Value)
2. Historical volatility (volatile) → Telegram (Trigger)

On the board it reads: 20 candles · above 80 %

Chain as JSON

To try it, copy it and paste it in the editor under “Import”. Importing creates a new chain.

hv.json

{
  "name": "Example: Historical volatility",
  "version": 1,
  "nodes": [
    { "id": "c1", "type": "core.candle", "position": { "x": 40, "y": 40 }, "settings": { "pair": "BTC/USDT", "timeframe": "1h" } },
    { "id": "h1", "type": "core.hv", "position": { "x": 260, "y": 40 }, "settings": { "length": 20, "high": 80 } },
    { "id": "t1", "type": "core.telegram", "position": { "x": 480, "y": 40 }, "settings": {} }
  ],
  "edges": [
    { "from": "c1.close", "to": "h1.in" },
    { "from": "h1.high", "to": "t1.in" }
  ]
}

Inputs and outputs

Only matching types connect: number series to number series (round pin), signal to signal (square), message to message (diamond).

Direction	Pin	Type	Note
Input	Value	Number series	required
Output	HV	Number series	in percent
Output	calm	Signal (true/false)	–
Output	volatile	Signal (true/false)	–

Good to know

• In messages the value is called “HV 20”.
• Warm-up with the default settings: 21 candles (this many extra candles are loaded by the replay before the value is reliable).
• Search also finds it under: volatility, historical volatility, hv, realized volatility, calm, volatile, risk.

Technical details

Standard deviation of the logarithmic returns ln(close / previous close) over the chosen candles (population), times √(candles per year) times 100. Candles per year for round-the-clock trading: 365 days divided by the timeframe, 12 for 1 month. On daily and weekly candles the same values as the Historical Volatility indicator in TradingView.

• Type in the chain: core.hv · Version 1.0.0 · Category key ind
• Settings in the chain: length (Candles), low (Calm below), high (Volatile above)
• Pins in the chain: Input in · Output out, low, high
• Reference tests in the manifest: 2 (with fixed price data: 500 candles of 1h)
• How a node is built